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Cold wave in North Asia! Oil, coal and gas prices may continue to rise

Time:2018-03-27 Clicks:

The early winter in North Asia this year and the full operation of power plants across the region will stimulate the demand for oil, coal and natural gas, which means that these energy prices may rise further. Commodity analysts blame La Nina for the cold wave.

The weather forecast shows that the temperature in Seoul and Beijing will fall below the historical level of the same period and last until the end of the year, and the weather in many parts of Japan will be colder than usual. This means that the demand for electricity will increase, as homes and offices need more heating. As a result, the power plant will use coal, natural gas and oil stocks and increase imports.

In the past five months, the price of coal in Asia has doubled, driven by winter demand and domestic production constraints, and China's imports have increased significantly. At the same time, this also prompted refineries to increase the production of refined oil such as kerosene, which is widely used for heating in places such as Japan. Boosted by this factor, Asia's refining profit margin jumped 54% in the past month and a half.

Gordon Kwan, director of oil and gas research in Asia at Nomura holdings, said, "La Nina replaced El Nino, meaning that winter will be colder than expected, not only this year, but also in the next two years. We believe that due to strong demand and other factors, the prices of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas are likely to rise further. "

Due to the strong demand in winter, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia has reached the highest level in a year. China National Petroleum Corporation said this week it plans to increase the total supply of natural gas this winter by 9.5% over the same period last year by increasing imports of liquefied natural gas by 54% over the same period last year and by using inventories.

CNPC said this will help meet the demand growth in Beijing. According to statistics, the daily gas consumption in Beijing will increase by about 3 million cubic meters every time the temperature in the heating season drops by one degree centigrade.

Gavin Thompson, head of China research at wood Mackenzie, a commodity consultancy, said: "from a price perspective, the short-term situation for LNG is pretty good. We expect stronger (price) growth over the next three months compared to spring and summer coal and gas prices. "

South Korean refineries expect the forecast long cold winter to increase heating oil demand and support refinery profitability. South Korean utilities such as Korea East West power are operating fuel oil power plants at full speed to meet demand.

Hokkaido suffered the biggest snowfall in the same period in 30 years, with kerosene sales in Japan up 43% year on year last week, according to the Japan Petroleum alliance.

Strong demand has reduced inventories, pushing refineries to produce at full speed, maximizing kerosene production at the expense of aviation coal production, traders said

Key:Cold wave in North Asia! Oil, coal and gas prices may continue to rise
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